Africa Country Reports

Service Overview for Quarterly Updates and Annual Country Profiles:

• Executive summary. A short overview of recent economic trends and a summary of our short term forecast.
• Country economic and political risk. Analysis of factors and drivers of economic and political risk, with a review of potential changes in the risk assessment, benchmarks with similarly scored economies and, if relevant, an overview of the credit risk ratings of major ratings agencies.
• Market developments and exchange rate. Recent developments and the outlook for local currency, listed equities, and sovereign bonds, where applicable, with a review of factors driving change.
• Economic policy. Developments in policy formulation, implementation and its successes-failures tailored to each country depending on its economic and political fundamentals, governance situation and the involvement of multilateral organisations.
• Economic growth. Analysis of recent developments relating to economic growth and the industries driving the expansion of gross domestic product (GDP), with short- to medium-term forecasts.
• Balance of payments. Recent developments and long-term trends for cross-border flows of goods and services. Includes main import and export commodities as well as key trading partners.
• Foreign Direct Investment. Analysis of factors supporting or discouraging FDI, policy and legal factors, and the role of incentives and governance standards. Includes a forecast for FDI and expectations of the country’s investment attractiveness going forward.
• Foreign reserves. Medium-term forecasts for reserve accumulation and the amount of import cover (a measurement of liquidity and the ability to finance imports) that these holdings will provide.

• External debt. Review of the country’s external debt dynamics at present and in the near future and what effect they will have on e.g. government finances and the current account.
• Inflation and monetary policy. Recent developments and long-term trends in consumer price inflation dynamics. Factors can include exchange rate volatility, local crop harvests, international commodity prices, government intervention in market pricing and the influence of regional factors.
• Fiscal policy. The stance of government finances, tax revenue generation, fiscal expenditure, and public sector borrowing, with a forecast for the fiscal budget balance. Factors can include donor funding from abroad, technical assistance from multilateral organisations, and the adverse impact on fiscal coffers from political trends.
• Political and strategic factors. Insight into recent and current political dynamics such as election results, armed conflict, leadership changes, and other factors feeding into overall political risk on a national and regional level. The risk assessment is also influenced by the legitimacy of the government, the effectiveness of state structures, and the role of civil society in governance.
• Economic data. Macroeconomic variables with historical data from 1990 and forecasts to 2050 in downloadable Excel spreadsheets. Data include economic growth, the fiscal budget balance, current account, foreign investment, external debt, inflation, the exchange rate and other key indicators.