Africa Country Reports
Regular reports on all 54 African sovereign territories, all of which are included in the full NKC Africa Macro Forecast Service
Quarterly Updates highlight significant economic, political and financial market developments that have occurred during the most recent three-month period for 26 major economies. Bi-Annual updates of the remaining 28 African countries, describe in detail our baseline outlook for each economy.
An annual Country Profile provides in-depth analysis of key political and economic issues, including economic policy, sectoral trends, sovereign risk, domestic economy, balance of payments, external debt and the all-important, political landscape. This is complemented by a comprehensive medium-term forecast, which identifies short-term market movements and probable trends.
Service Overview for Quarterly Updates and Annual Country Profiles:
- Executive summary. A short overview of recent economic trends and a summary of our short term forecast.
- Country economic and political risk. Analysis of factors and drivers of economic and political risk, with a review of potential changes in the risk assessment, benchmarks with similarly scored economies and, if relevant, an overview of the credit risk ratings of major ratings agencies.
- Market developments and exchange rate. Recent developments and the outlook for local currency, listed equities, and sovereign bonds, where applicable, with a review of factors driving change.
- Economic policy. Developments in policy formulation, implementation and its successes-failures tailored to each country depending on its economic and political fundamentals, governance situation and the involvement of multilateral organisations.
- Economic growth. Analysis of recent developments relating to economic growth and the industries driving the expansion of gross domestic product (GDP), with short- to medium-term forecasts.
- Balance of payments. Recent developments and long-term trends for cross-border flows of goods and services. Includes main import and export commodities as well as key trading partners.
- Foreign Direct Investment. Analysis of factors supporting or discouraging FDI, policy and legal factors, and the role of incentives and governance standards. Includes a forecast for FDI and expectations of the country’s investment attractiveness going forward.
- Foreign reserves. Medium-term forecasts for reserve accumulation and the amount of import cover (a measurement of liquidity and the ability to finance imports) that these holdings will provide.
- External debt. Review of the country’s external debt dynamics at present and in the near future and what effect they will have on e.g. government finances and the current account.
- Inflation and monetary policy. Recent developments and long-term trends in consumer price inflation dynamics. Factors can include exchange rate volatility, local crop harvests, international commodity prices, government intervention in market pricing and the influence of regional factors.
- Fiscal policy. The stance of government finances, tax revenue generation, fiscal expenditure, and public sector borrowing, with a forecast for the fiscal budget balance. Factors can include donor funding from abroad, technical assistance from multilateral organisations, and the adverse impact on fiscal coffers from political trends.
- Political and strategic factors. Insight into recent and current political dynamics such as election results, armed conflict, leadership changes, and other factors feeding into overall political risk on a national and regional level. The risk assessment is also influenced by the legitimacy of the government, the effectiveness of state structures, and the role of civil society in governance.
- Economic data. Macroeconomic variables with historical data from 1990 and forecasts to 2050 in downloadable Excel spreadsheets. Data include economic growth, the fiscal budget balance, current account, foreign investment, external debt, inflation, the exchange rate and other key indicators.
Service overview for Bi-Annual updates:
- Highlights and forecast overview. A summary of each country's economic situation and prospects, with clear explanation of the main factors driving our forecasts.
- Risk assessment. An evaluation of emerging risks to economic growth, key risk scenarios, and their impacts on national output.
- Long-term prospects. Commentary and data for a range of central economic and financial indicators with historical data from 1990 and forecasts to 2050 in downloadable Excel spreadsheets.
- Deep Macroeconomic Databank A range of economic indicators for every country, including GDP and domestic demand, prices and wages, labour market, trade, balance of payments, financial indicators, government accounts, and socioeconomic and demographic data sets.
- Monthly global economic reviews. Highlights of critical issues and risks facing the global economy, based on our global forecasts and scenarios.
- Economist support. We provide full client support to answer questions about our data or forecasts.