Event-Driven Analysis
Africa Country Reports
Quarterly reports for the largest 30 African economies, with in-depth annual profiles
Quarterly Updates highlight significant economic, political and financial market developments that have occurred during the most recent three-month period for each of the 30 countries monitored.
An annual Country Profile provides in-depth analysis of key political and economic issues, including economic policy, sectoral trends, sovereign risk, domestic economy, balance of payments, external debt and the all-important, political landscape. This is complemented by a comprehensive medium-term forecast, which identifies short-term market movements and probable trends.
Service Overview:
- Executive summary. A short overview of recent economic trends and a summary of our short term forecast.
- Country economic and political risk. Analysis of factors and drivers of economic and political risk, with a review of potential changes in the risk assessment, benchmarks with similarly scored economies and, if relevant, an overview of the credit risk ratings of major ratings agencies.
- Market developments and exchange rate. Recent developments and the outlook for local currency, listed equities, and sovereign bonds, where applicable, with a review of factors driving change.
- Economic policy. Developments in policy formulation, implementation and its successes-failures tailored to each country depending on its economic and political fundamentals, governance situation and the involvement of multilateral organisations.
- Economic growth. Analysis of recent developments relating to economic growth and the industries driving the expansion of gross domestic product (GDP), with short- to medium-term forecasts.
- Balance of payments. Recent developments and long-term trends for cross-border flows of goods and services. Includes main import and export commodities as well as key trading partners.
- Foreign Direct Investment. Analysis of factors supporting or discouraging FDI, policy and legal factors, and the role of incentives and governance standards. Includes a forecast for FDI and expectations of the country’s investment attractiveness going forward.
- Foreign reserves. Medium-term forecasts for reserve accumulation and the amount of import cover (a measurement of liquidity and the ability to finance imports) that these holdings will provide.
- External debt. Review of the country’s external debt dynamics at present and in the near future and what effect they will have on e.g. government finances and the current account.
- Inflation and monetary policy. Recent developments and long-term trends in consumer price inflation dynamics. Factors can include exchange rate volatility, local crop harvests, international commodity prices, government intervention in market pricing and the influence of regional factors.
- Fiscal policy. The stance of government finances, tax revenue generation, fiscal expenditure, and public sector borrowing, with a forecast for the fiscal budget balance. Factors can include donor funding from abroad, technical assistance from multilateral organisations, and the adverse impact on fiscal coffers from political trends.
- Political and strategic factors. Insight into recent and current political dynamics such as election results, armed conflict, leadership changes, and other factors feeding into overall political risk on a national and regional level. The risk assessment is also influenced by the legitimacy of the government, the effectiveness of state structures, and the role of civil society in governance.
- Economic data. Key macroeconomic data with five years of historical trends and a two year forecast. Data include economic growth, the fiscal budget balance, current account, foreign investment, external debt, inflation, the exchange rate and other key indicators.