In-Depth Analysis
Zimbabwe
The new dispensation has failed to manage an economic turnaround, following the ouster of former President Robert Mugabe in 2017. Foreign investment inflows have not materialised to the extent that the Mnangagwa-administration was hoping for. The country’s economic hardship is likely to persist, amid a deepening currency crisis and the risk of growing civil unrest.
Our view is that the economy will come under considerable pressure in 2019, with real GDP forecast to contract by 1.5%. Foreign investment inflows have not materialised to the extent that the Mnangagwa-administration was hoping for. The view ahead is bleak: economic revival and investment are urgently needed to generate hard currency to help ease critical shortages and rising prices. We have little faith that the recent developments regarding Zimbabwe’s currency regime will produce any significant changes. The move does not address some of the underlying issues and Zimbabweans still prefer actual US dollars over the newly announced RTGS dollars. Unable to pay back its debt, and with the West disinclined to offer any support, Zimbabwe will have to go it alone for at least the medium term and some domestic cooperation is essential or the situation will become terminal. (Source: Zimbabwe Quarterly Update, published February 2019)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-16.8 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
10.5 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
1.1 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,111.6 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
0.5 |
|
Population, million |
16.9 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
61.0 |