In-Depth Analysis
Zambia
Boasting a wealth of natural resources, including an assortment of mineral deposits and substantial water supply capacity, the strength of Zambia’s external position and growth environment relies heavily on the performance of the copper sector. This is however a double-edged sword, as Zambia is highly susceptible to shocks to the terms of trade due to its dependence on copper and a narrow export base.
Zambia became the sub-Saharan African region’s first pandemic-related sovereign default casualty this quarter. However, fledgling optimism that 2021 will host a Fund-supported, conditional restructuring agreement (which will unlock a consequential IMF financing programme) along with brighter copper sector prospects suggests that economic recovery will gain traction next year. Notwithstanding the supportive factors, risks surrounding the baseline have increased, while the August 2021 elections in particular may present a curveball. (Source: Zambia Quarterly Update, December 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.9 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
9.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
0.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
1.5 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,298.7 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
1.9 |
|
Population, million |
17.9 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
89.8 |