In-Depth Analysis
Zambia
Boasting a wealth of natural resources, including an assortment of mineral deposits and substantial water supply capacity, the strength of Zambia’s external position and growth environment relies heavily on the performance of the copper sector. This is however a double-edged sword, as Zambia is highly susceptible to shocks to the terms of trade due to its dependence on copper and a narrow export base.
The loosening of lockdown restrictions alongside a remarkable recovery in the copper sector trimmed our full-year contraction estimate for 2020 to a more palatable 2.8%. Nonetheless, short-term growth prospects are dented by pre-election risk aversion, as well as uncertainty relating to the duration and outcome of the restructuring exercise after a second missed Eurobond payment and the debt-backed acquisition of MCM. With monetary policy in a tightening cycle and weak fiscal space straining private consumption, we expect a feeble growth recovery this year. (Source: Zambia Annual Country Profile, March 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-6.1 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
15.7 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
10.3 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-2.8 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,076.2 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
2.1 |
|
Population, million |
18.4 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
153.3 |