In-Depth Analysis
Zambia
The macroeconomic prospects for Zambia remain robust despite a backdrop of global malaise and subsequent downside risk to base metals. Underpinning the robust performance is the continued development of the extractive sector and the strong fiscal spending programme geared towards addressing the country’s infrastructure shortfall.
The past quarter has seen numerous negative forecast adjustments, including a reduction in expected real GDP growth, a widening of both the projected twin deficits and an upward adjustment in price inflation forecasts, while we have also factored in stronger depreciatory pressure on the kwacha exchange rate. The announcement of budgetary aid suspension in the context of the ongoing stalemate regarding IMF support resulted in a confidence crisis, which was then followed by an unconvincing fiscal budget statement. Ongoing failure to secure IMF financial assistance will likely pressure the copper producer to continue borrowing in foreign currency, unravelling fledgling consolidation efforts as revenue inflows are inadequate to meet external liabilities. (Source: Zambia Quarterly Update, October 2018.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2017)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
6.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.9 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
4.0 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,506.8 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
2.7 |
|
Population, million |
17.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
40.7 |