Uganda
The Ugandan government has focused on market reforms and macroeconomic stability as the anchor for investment, economic growth, and structural transformation. While these policies paid off in terms of macroeconomic stability and impressive GDP growth, they have not delivered significantly on economic transformation.
Weaker services sector performance in H1 2019 weighed on GDP growth, prompting a downward revision of our GDP growth forecast. However, the outlook remains positive, supported by the multiplier effects from public infrastructure investments and oil-related FDI inflows. Although headline inflation has surprised on the downside this year, averaging 2.8% in the first three quarters of 2019, we expect inflationary pressure to intensify next year as drier weather conditions dissipate low food-price base effects. While trade balances should get some reprieve from lower oil imports this year thanks to lower global oil prices, the anticipated uptick in capital goods imports related to ongoing infrastructure development projects should still widen the current account deficit. Likewise, the budget deficit should widen as we expect an increase in government spending. Politically, Uganda remains in the tight grip of President Yoweri Museveni. However, his over-30-year rule is increasingly being challenged, and political risks will rise as elections in 2021 near. (Source: Uganda Quarterly Update, published October 2019.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.1 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-9.1 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
6.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
662.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.7 |
|
Population, million |
42.7 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
43.6 |