Uganda
The Ugandan government has focused on market reforms and macroeconomic stability as the anchor for investment, economic growth, and structural transformation. While these policies paid off in terms of macroeconomic stability and impressive GDP growth, they have not delivered significantly on economic transformation.
GDP growth to remain strong at 6% this year, supported by the multiplier effects from public infrastructure investments. Although headline inflation remains subdued at 3.4% y-o-y in June, inflationary pressure is expected to intensify in H2 2019 as favourable base effects stemming from food prices dissipate. Trade balances should get some reprieve from stronger export growth this year; still, the expected uptick in capital goods imports related to the nascent hydrocarbons industry should keep the current account deficit above 7% of GDP over the medium term. Likewise, Uganda’s budget deficit is forecast to widen as we expect a notable increase in public spending this year. Politically, Uganda remains in the tight grip of President Yoweri Museveni, but his over-30-year rule is increasingly being challenged and political risks will rise as elections in 2021 near. (Source: Uganda Annual Country Profile, published July 2019.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.9 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.6 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
7.7 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
694.7 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.7 |
|
Population, million |
42.7 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
41.6 |