In-Depth Analysis
Uganda
The Ugandan government has focused on market reforms and macroeconomic stability as the anchor for investment, economic growth, and structural transformation. While these policies paid off in terms of macroeconomic stability and impressive GDP growth, they have not delivered significantly on economic transformation.
GDP growth is expected at 6.1% this year, driven by the multiplier effects of public infrastructure projects and an expansion in services. We have revised our medium term GDP growth forecast slightly downwards as impending oil production faces further delays – first oil is now expected in 2022. Uganda’s economic outlook, however, remains positive with GDP growth expected to average just over 6% over the medium term, largely supported by increasing FDI in oil-related sectors and reforms aimed at improving business environment. In addition, increasing capital goods imports related to oil production should put significant pressure on Uganda’s trade balance, therefore we expect the current account deficit to widen over the medium term. (Source: Uganda Quarterly Update, published January 2019.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-4.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-6.8 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
5.9 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
647 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.9 |
|
Population, million |
44.4 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
42.3 |