In-Depth Analysis
Uganda
The government has focused on macroeconomic stability, structural transformation, and infrastructure development to support the nascent hydrocarbons sector. The Covid-19 pandemic and the measures imposed to curb the spread of the virus have battered the economy and should delay investments in the country’s oil projects. There is emerging evidence of near-term growth recovery following the easing of containment measures, and the medium-term outlook is positive.
Even with the recovery in Q4, the economy still contracted by 1.1% in 2020 compared with the 8.1% expansion in 2019. We expect Uganda’s economy to rebound this year, with real GDP forecast at 7.0%, supported by less-stringent Covid-19 restrictions, a resilient agricultural sector, and a recovery in the global economy. In recent months, consumer price inflation has edged higher in line with continued improvement in both domestic demand and economic activity. An improvement in trade and an uptick in diaspora remittances should see the current account deficit narrow this year. On the political front, long-ruling President Yoweri Museveni was re-elected for a sixth term in office. (Source: Uganda Quarterly Update, published April 2021)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.8/p> |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-1.1 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
832.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.74 |
|
Population, million |
45.7 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
44.1 |