In-Depth Analysis
Tunisia
As a fairly developed country, Tunisia is exposed to the economic shocks relating to Covid-19, which has resulted in the worst recession since the country’s independence in 1956. Low inflation, countercyclical fiscal policies, robust international support and a stable exchange rate still provide support, while good institutions, deep ties with Europe, and a diversified economy are expected to underpin recovery.
The power grab by President Kaïs Saïed on July 25 happened as low Covid-19 vaccination rates and poor governance culminated into the fourth wave of Covid-19 infections in Tunisia. There was mixed reaction to Kaïs Saïed's suspension of Parliament for 30 days. At midnight on August 24, Mr Saïed issued a decree renewing the exceptional measures “until further notice”. On the economic front, the crippling effect of the fourth wave saw real GDP contract by 2.0% q-o-q in Q2 this year, while the current account deficit is expected to worsen because of persistently low services exports and continued high import dependence. Although the government increased fiscal spending to alleviate the economic distress, more spending will be required to address the escalation of the burden in recent weeks. (Source: Tunisia Quarterly Update, published September 2021)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-10.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
5.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-6.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-9.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,318.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.7 |
|
Population, million |
11.8 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
98.8 |