In-Depth Analysis
Sudan
Economic and political risks are high as former President Omar Al-Bashir was ousted in a military-led coup, after 30 years in power. This revolution signifies a structural break in the country’s economic and political landscape, and the country’s transition from authoritarian to civilian rule is remarkable. Nevertheless, conditions remain dire as the economy remains constrained due to years of corruption, conflict, and neglect.
The coronavirus outbreak could not have come at a worse time for Sudan as the post-revolution economy is very exposed to external shocks relating to pandemic. Macroeconomic conditions remain severely constrained due to a shrinking economy, high inflation, large external and fiscal imbalances, and an overvalued currency. Covid-19 is set to disrupt international supply chains, weaken global demand, and deter investment to high-risk countries. With domestic industries suppressed and government unable to implement countercyclical fiscal policy, economic conditions are expected to deteriorate severely this year, with real GDP forecast to contract by 7.3% in 2020. (Source: Sudan Quarterly Update, published April 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
51 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-18.2 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-2.5 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
638.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
0 |
|
Population, million |
42.8 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
206 |