Nigeria

Markedly lower oil prices placed the Nigerian economy under immense pressure and an ineffective policy response failed to provide support. Economic activity has started to gain some traction, but oil prices trending lower again now threaten to derail the still-fragile rebound..

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Real GDP growth surprised slightly to the upside in Q3, supported by a slight rebound in the non-oil economy and oil output growth remaining especially robust. The latest GDP print paints a slightly more optimistic picture, as do more recent survey figures. However, slower oil output growth, sabotage attacks and policy distortions represent key downside risks. Gross reserves have also remained on a downward trajectory throughout H2, and there is a significant risk of additional FX restrictions being imposed should reserves come under more pressure than currently envisaged. (Source: Nigeria Quarterly Update, published December 2019.)

Macroeconomic Data

(2018)

Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP)

-4.5

Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg)

12.1

Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP)

1.4

Real GDP (annual % change)

1.9

GDP per Capita, US$

1,897.5

Import Cover (months)

7.2

Population, million

196.0
Total External Debt (as a % of GDP)

12.4
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