In-Depth Analysis
Namibia
Due to risks to the growth outlook, an increasing public debt burden and a loss in confidence in the ministry of finance’s ability to stabilise public debt levels, Namibia has lost its investment-grade credit ratings from Moody’s Investors Service, Fitch Ratings and ourselves.
Although we still expect growth to recover thanks to improved construction sector output and consumer spending (both are coming off a low base), our outlook for growth has become gloomier due to the disappointing Q1 GDP figures, the re-emergence of inflationary pressures, moderating Chinese growth and the risks associated with global trade protectionism. We have cut our forecast for GDP growth to 0.9% in 2018, 2.3% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, but stress that risks are skewed to the downside in the short run due the uncertainty of the effects of the global trade war, the EM debt crises in Turkey and Argentina, Brexit and the trajectory of oil prices. (Source: Namibia Quarterly Update, September 2018)
Macroeconomic Data
(2017)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
6.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-0.9 |
|
GDP per capital, US$ |
5,230 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.5 |
|
Population, million |
2.5 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
59.1 |