In-Depth Analysis
Namibia
Namibia is a small economy with an overreliance on certain key exports, namely diamonds, copper, and fish. Relatively large fiscal deficits since 2009 and challenges in narrowing the shortfall have caused rapidly rising government external debt levels. The country has low political risk, characterised by regular democratic elections, but recent corruption scandals have tainted its image as one of the least-corrupt African states.
We now expect a 7.8% contraction this year, compared to the IMF’s latest forecast of -2.5% for 2020. Namibia is particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus-induced global growth slump, due to its relatively large dependence on tourism, minerals exports, public investment, and the economy of its key trade partner, South Africa. Furthermore, we expect that the Covid-19 pandemic will have a negative impact on the already-high youth unemployment and inequality, which will add to the pressure that the ruling Swapo party was already under to deliver to its citizens. (Source: Namibia Annual Country Profile, June 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.1 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.7 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-2.3 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-1.1 |
|
GDP per capital, US$ |
4,957.1 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.2 |
|
Population, million |
2.5 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
68.3 |