In-Depth Analysis
Mozambique
Despite having bountiful untapped mineral resources, the largest power generation potential in Southern Africa, and vast stretches of underutilised arable land, Mozambique remains one of the least-developed countries in the world. Two major offshore LNG projects, which could double GDP in the coming years, are going ahead despite depressed gas prices and an escalating insurgency in Cabo Delgado.
We forecast real GDP growth to recover slowly to 1.0% this year from -1.3% in 2020, before speeding up to 3.6% in 2022. Economic activity remained subdued in Q1 2021 amid tighter Covid-19 restrictions, the ongoing insurgency in Cabo Delgado, as well as weak coal and gas exports. In the short to medium term, we do not see the insurgency in Cabo Delgado dying down, as it is rooted in the decades-long build-up of frustration that these communities have towards the Frelimo government. (Source: Mozambique Quarterly Update, published June 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-10.8 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-27.3 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-1.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
444.8 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.6 |
|
Population, million |
31.3 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
158.8 |