In-Depth Analysis
Mozambique
Despite having bountiful untapped mineral resources, the largest power generation potential in Southern Africa, and vast stretches of underutilised arable land, Mozambique remains one of the least-developed countries in the world. Two major offshore LNG projects, which could double GDP in the coming years, are going ahead despite depressed gas prices and an escalating insurgency in Cabo Delgado.
The economy is expected to contract this year for the first time since 1992 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Exports, such as coal, aluminium and gemstones, will fall sharply this year due to shuttered mines, closed borders and diminished global demand. Furthermore, we forecast a freeze in new business and public investments projects due to economic uncertainty and weakened balance sheets. On the political front, the escalating Islamist insurgency in the north, depressed natural gas prices and Covid-19 are the biggest risks facing Mozambique over the short- to medium term, but a breakdown in relations between Frelimo and Renamo cannot be dismissed either. (Source: Mozambique Annual Country Profile, published August 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.8 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-19.8 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
2.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
503.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.6 |
|
Population, million |
30.4 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
103.8 |