Mozambique

Despite having bountiful untapped mineral resources, the largest power generation potential in Southern Africa, and vast stretches of underutilised arable land, Mozambique remains one of the least-developed countries in the world. Two major offshore LNG projects, which could double GDP in the coming years, are going ahead despite depressed gas prices and an escalating insurgency in Cabo Delgado.

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The much-better-than-expected Q2 2020 GDP release has prompted us to revise our 2020 economic growth forecast to -0.3% from -2.8%, previously. The relatively benign GDP contraction in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic and escalating violence in Cabo Delgado, which has displaced over 300,000 people, can partly be attributed to the fact that growth in the heavy-weighted agricultural sector remained stable despite a slump in agricultural exports. The Islamist extremist insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado continues unabated, with no quick resolution or major foreign intervention in sight. (Source: Mozambique Quarterly Update, published November 2020.)

Macroeconomic Data

(2019)

Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP)

-3.7

Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg)

2.8

Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP)

-19.8

Real GDP (annual % change)

2.3

GDP per Capita, US$

514.4

Import Cover (months)

4.6

Population, million

29.7
Total External Debt (as a % of GDP)

103.7
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