In-Depth Analysis
Mozambique
Despite having bountiful untapped mineral resources, the largest power generation potential in Southern Africa, and vast stretches of underutilised arable land, Mozambique remains one of the least-developed countries in the world. Two major offshore LNG projects, which could double GDP in the coming years, are going ahead despite depressed gas prices and an escalating insurgency in Cabo Delgado.
The arrival of troops from Rwanda and SADC gives hope that the tide will turn in the Cabo Delgado insurgency. Meanwhile, the adverse effects of ongoing pandemic-related restrictions and large-scale displacements due to the armed conflict will hamper economic output this year. On the bright side, the outlook for commodity exports has improved in H2 2021 thanks to robust Chinese demand. We forecast real GDP growth to recover slowly to 1.7% this year from -1.2% in 2020, before speeding up to 2.9% in 2022. (Source: Mozambique Annual Country Profile, published August 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-10.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-26.9 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-1.2 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
450.1 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.52 |
|
Population, million |
31.3 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
157.0 |