In-Depth Analysis
Morocco
The Moroccan economy is fairly well diversified. However, it remains vulnerable in two main areas: firstly, its external position is highly reliant on the euro zone; and secondly, private consumption is highly dependent on the agricultural sector.
Real GDP growth was revised upwards by 0.1 ppts to 3.2% in 2018 on the back of higher than expected agricultural production during H1, as well as robust growth in the manufacturing and tourism sectors. However, this is still lower than the 4.1% seen last year due to a cyclical downturn in agricultural production. Medium-term economic growth prospects remain dependent on ongoing reforms to improve labour participation and efficiency, access to finance, quality of education and the business environment as these represent the Kingdom’s main economic challenges. Politically, risk is mainly a longer-term dynamic, resulting to a large degree from urban unemployment, aggravated by corruption perceptions, inequality and migration. Over the past two years latent instability has found expression in regional unrest and opposition to the central political power, but more lately a combination of police action and, more helpfully, proactive action by King Mohammed VI has reduced the expression of dissent. We maintain our overall political risk rating unchanged at low tending moderate with the trend neutral. (Source: Morocco Quarterly Update, published September 2018.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2017)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
0.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.5 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
4.1 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,056 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
6.4 |
|
Population, million |
35.7 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
48.0 |