In-Depth Analysis
Libya
The Libyan economy is dominated by its 48,363 million barrels of proven oil reserves; the largest of any African nation. Currently in protracted civil war, oil exports have plummeted as negotiations surrounding a ceasefire continue. With few alternative sources of fiscal revenues or export earnings, finding a resolution remains essential.
Oil production has rebounded strongly from dismal lows in 2020, averaging a steady 1.2 million barrels per day for the first eight months of the year. This has fuelled government revenues and offset losses from the abolished tax on foreign currency sales. However, the political transition remains fragile and discord between the Tripoli-based interim government and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives is threatening the elections, scheduled for December 24. A legal framework for polls remains absent, raising fears that the election will be postponed or lack credibility. A return to hostilities remains a possibility. (Source: Libya Country Economic Forecast, published September 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-39.4 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
1.4 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-40.3 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-59.7 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,853.1 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
54.97 |
|
Population, million |
6.9 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
23.9 |