In-Depth Analysis
Libya
Libya is a textbook example of the dangers of the natural resource curse. The hydrocarbons sector is very vulnerable and accounts on average for around 70% of GDP, 90% of fiscal revenues, and 95% of export earnings. While oil production has increased since the 2011 revolution, ongoing fighting pose significant downside risks to the undiversified economy.
The conflict in Libya passed the one-year mark in April, and has spilled into the hydrocarbons sector. Oil output declined by 70.4% q-o-q to an average of 344,000 bpd in 2020 Q1, from 1,163,000 bpd in 2019 Q4. With the war raging on, oil production is expected to decline to less than 500,000 bpd in 2020, dragging real GDP down by 41.7%. Libya is one of the few countries where Covid-19 is expected to have a comparatively smaller impact on the economy than that of the oil price and production slumps. However, with the coronavirus spreading unchecked, the inevitable domestic health emergency will have a severe impact on the war-torn country, delaying its recovery. In terms of political risk, we maintain our overall assessment unchanged at high, but have changed the trend to stable as a brutal battle for Tripoli now appears unlikely. (Source: Libya Quarterly Update, published May 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-11.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
-2.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
11.2 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.7 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
10,825.8 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
45.0 |
|
Population, million |
6.8 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
8.4 |