In-Depth Analysis
Libya
Libya is a textbook example of the dangers of the natural resource curse. The hydrocarbons sector accounts on average for around 70% of GDP, 90% of fiscal revenues and 95% of export earnings. Meanwhile, on the political front the country has endured years of instability following the uprising of 2011.
Representatives of Libya’s two governments, the Government of National Accord and the House of Representatives renewed their calls for elections after the December elections failed to occur. Oil production is estimated to have averaged 970,000 bpd in 2018 and is set to decline to 960,000 bpd in 2019 following the three-month closure of the country’s largest oil field with further disruptions expected in the lead-up to elections. GDP growth is estimated at 12.3% for 2018 and forecast to decline to 1.1% this year, as a result of declining oil production and weaker international oil prices. Consumer price index inflation declined from a record-high of 28.5% in 2017 to 9.3% in 2018, and is expected to decline further in the short-to medium term. (Source: Libya Quarterly Update, published March 2019.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.4 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
9.3 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
15.2 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
12.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
9,247 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
68.8 |
|
Population, million |
6.5 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
9.4 |