Kenya

Within the context of the global economy’s expected 4.8% contraction in 2020 and sub-Saharan Africa’s projected recession for the first time in 25 years, Kenya’s robust expansion is expected to grind to a halt this year. This recession is expected to be greater than that seen during the global financial crisis, with much uncertainty regarding the recovery and post-crisis economic growth trajectory. Our economic outlook now includes a contraction in the Kenyan economy of 2.0% in 2020, much worse than our previous expectation for a 5.6% expansion. Kenya’s stellar services sector is expected to come under substantial pressure, while manufacturing, agricultural exports, remittances, and investment will also be impacted. At the same time, Kenya’s fiscal position is expected to deteriorate as fiscal revenues plummet, while the currency should also come under fire. We continue to rate political risk in Kenya as low to moderate. The Covid-19 pandemic has impacted the country significantly and prompted government to introduce restrictions to arrest the spread of the disease. Fissures within the ruling Jubilee Party are widening: the relationship between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, continues to sour as resistance grows against the idea of him becoming the next president. Political uncertainty is set to continue as the impact of political rivalries and Covid-19 become clearer.. (Source: Kenya Quarterly Update, published May 2020.)

Macroeconomic Data

(2019)