In-Depth Analysis
Kenya
Kenya has exhibited a volatile economic growth performance over the past decade, partly due to the reliance on hydropower, the fact that most agricultural activities remain rain-fed, and the knock-on effect of poor harvests on consumer spending. Our political risk rating has been downgraded to low tending moderate because of election-related tensions.
The past quarter has delivered some mixed developments regarding Kenya’s economic outlook. The country’s economic growth outlook has improved, external balances have benefited from a remarkable rise in remittances receipts, while the fiscal environment has seen some positive developments including the adoption of a VAT on fuel. However, the past quarter has also seen the expiry of the IMF programme review period with no follow-up programme in place. The inability to set the stage for a follow-up programme suggests that the Fund and the Kenyan government are not on the same page when it comes to the country’s fiscal trajectory. (Source: Kenya Annual Country Profile, published November 2018.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.9 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
4.7 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
5.9 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,765 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.0 |
|
Population, million |
51.0 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
31.9 |