In-Depth Analysis
Kenya
Following a commendable growth performance of late, the sudden economic and financial stops due to Covid-19 have derailed East Africa’s most sophisticated economy. The fiscal measures enacted to mitigate the socio-economic impact of the virus will exacerbate the country’s precarious fiscal and public debt positions. The outlook remains positive, supported by a diversified economic base, strong manufacturing sector, and a relatively skilled workforce.
The robust growth of the Kenyan economy came to an abrupt halt last year as the coronavirus crisis unfolded. The pandemic and measures to contain it, including business and border closures, disrupted supply chains, restricted travel & tourism, and dampened economic activity in Kenya and globally. It also caused principal foreign exchange earners, such as tourism, to collapse. Investment nosedived and portfolio flows reversed, though Kenya was somewhat supported by lower dollar demand for oil imports, lifegiving remittances inflows, and a good year for tea. We expect economic growth and investment to take time to recover to pre-pandemic levels. (Source: Kenya Quarterly Update, published February 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
5.4 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-4.3 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-0.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,850.0 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.5 |
|
Population, million |
53.8 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
39.0 |