In-Depth Analysis
Gabon
Gabon’s small population provides for relative stability, but the lower oil price environment has placed pressure on the government to cut fiscal spending and speed up the diversification of the oil-dependent economy. Low legitimacy and constraints on the ability of President Ali Bongo to extend his patronage networks provide for underlying tensions on the political front.
Gabon’s economy is expected to experience its largest contraction since 1999 due to the impact that the Covid-19 crisis has had on oil prices and output. Positive news on the coronavirus vaccine front has seen the oil price recovery gain some momentum yet again, but this will not be enough to ease damage already done. Our revised forecast suggests a 6.2% real GDP contraction in 2020, with a 5.1% growth on the cards in 2021. We project oil-related exports to fall sharply by 45% in 2020, leading to a notable widening in the current account shortfall. Treasury’s dependence on oil for 60% of fiscal revenues in normal times also means that the fiscal balance is anticipated to deteriorate significantly. (Source: Gabon Quarterly Update, published December 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
2.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.5 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-0.3 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
7,668.9 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
3.2 |
|
Population, million |
2.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
43.2 |