In-Depth Analysis
Gabon
Gabon’s small population provides for relative stability, but the lower oil price environment has placed pressure on the government to cut fiscal spending and speed up the diversification of the oil-dependent economy. Low legitimacy and constraints on the ability of President Ali Bongo to extend his patronage networks provide for underlying tensions on the political front.
Gabon’s economy is set to experience its worst year since 1999 due to the Covid-19 crisis and the impact it has had on oil prices and demand. Despite revising our oil price for this year upwards from $41 to $44, our view for the local economy is still largely negative, albeit slightly less so. Our revised forecast suggests a 6.1% real GDP contraction in 2020, while we anticipate 5.1% real economic growth next year as the oil price starts to recover. The negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global demand and commodity prices is set to see both oil and non-oil exports decrease substantially. We expect oil-related exports to fall drastically by 40.6% due to weak oil prices and dampened production output, while government finances are also expected to suffer severely this year. With treasury’s reliance on oil for 60% of government revenues in normal times, the fiscal balance is forecast to deteriorate notably from an estimated surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2019 to a deficit of 4.0% of GDP in 2020. (Source: Gabon Quarterly Update, published September 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
1.5 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.5 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
7,668.9 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
3.4 |
|
Population, million |
2.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
42.1 |