In-Depth Analysis
Gabon
Gabon’s small population provides for relative stability, but the lower oil price environment has placed pressure on the government to cut fiscal spending and speed up the diversification of the oil-dependent economy. Low legitimacy and constraints on the ability of President Ali Bongo to extend his patronage networks provide for underlying tensions on the political front.
The Gabonese economy contracted by 1.3% last year as the Covid-19 outbreak and ensuing oil price slump dealt a heavy blow to the country’s industrial and services sectors. That said, the oil price recovery, which began in November last year, bodes well for Gabonese exports this year. Inflation is expected to remain muted in 2021 due to the presence of favourable base effects, while the peg of the CFA franc to the euro also lends stability to prices. Although our short-term growth outlook is bleak due to oil supply cuts and high public debt, our medium-term view is somewhat rosier. (Source: Gabon Country Economic Forecast, published September 2021)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
1.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.9 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-1.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
7,008.5 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
2.4 |
|
Population, million |
2.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
56.0 |