In-Depth Analysis
Ethiopia
Ethiopia grapples with low levels of economic development, widespread poverty, a limited export base, and susceptibility to climate-driven disruptions. An ambitious expansionary fiscal policy yielded commendable economic growth over the past decade, but government champions a rotation towards a more inclusive, market-orientated economy under a broad-based reform and privatisation drive.
Ethiopia is battling a dual exogenous shock in the form of the Covid-19 pandemic and a threat to food security posed by a worsening desert locust infestation. While the absence of concrete data adds a layer of complexity to the estimation of the impact on growth and trade, we anticipate a ‘V’-shaped growth recovery from an abysmal 0.2% this year to 6.3% in 2021. In addition to support lent by the IMF, the robust rebound forecast also captures our expectation that the partial privatisation and reform drive will again take centre stage in the post-pandemic environment. (Source: Ethiopia Quarterly Update, published May 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-2.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
16.0 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.9 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
7.5 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
816.2 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
1.7 |
|
Population, million |
112.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
33.7 |