In-Depth Analysis
Egypt
Thanks to the adoption of reforms under an ambitious IMF programme, Egypt’s macroeconomic indicators have improved notably. This has made Egypt fairly resilient to the shocks brought about by Covid-19 and should help support a strong bounce-back relative to its North African counterparts. A high level of state presence in the economy and high domestic public debt levels are some of its ongoing challenges.
Egypt has proven to be one of the most resilient emerging market economies in the face of the pandemic. Recent preliminary figures show that after contracting by just 1.7% y-o-y in Q2 2020, real GDP rose by 0.7% y-o-y in Q3, supported by a gradual recovery in real investments and exports. Although Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data suggests that the economic recovery continued into Q4 2020, we suspect that the second Covid-19 wave, which took place over the December to February period, likely hampered the recovery into Q1 2021. The latest PMI data, which shows that the non-oil sector returned to contractionary territory over the December to February period, supports this view. Despite recent progress made in the roll-out of Egypt’s vaccination campaign, we remain cautious in our assumption for a recovery, especially with warnings of a third wave on the horizon. (Source: Egypt Quarterly Update, published March 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.9 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
5.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.6 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.6 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,405.9 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
6.0 |
|
Population, million |
102.3 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
37.9 |