In-Depth Analysis
Egypt
Thanks to the adoption of reforms under an ambitious IMF programme, Egypt’s macroeconomic indicators have improved notably. This has made Egypt fairly resilient to the shocks brought about by Covid-19 and should help support a strong bounce-back relative to its North African counterparts. A high level of state presence in the economy and high domestic public debt levels are some of its ongoing challenges.
Real GDP surprised to the upside in H1 2020, rising by 1.6% y-o-y, compared with 5.7% y-o-y in H1 2019. Stronger-than-expected real GDP growth was driven by unusually robust household consumption, which rose by 9.3% y-o-y in H1 2020, compared with an increase of 1.3% y-o-y in H1 2019. We believe that remarkably strong consumption growth was driven by various temporary factors brought about by current global conditions – such as panic-buying, a peculiar rise in remittances from Egyptians abroad and low borrowing costs thanks to unprecedented cuts to key policy rates. (Source: Egypt Quarterly Update, published December 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.0 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
9.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.0 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
5.6 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,349.0 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
6.2 |
|
Population, million |
100.4 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
34.2 |