In-Depth Analysis
eSwatini
Landlocked eSwatini is ruled by Africa’s last absolute monarch and most of its people are dependent on subsistence agriculture. Large amounts of unwarranted state spending blemish the country’s reputation along with its foreign investment appeal. While disruptive political change at some point seems certain, it does not look imminent.
Economic growth will remain subdued over the medium term due to the widening fiscal deficit and a weak regional economic outlook. We have revised our forecast for eSwatini’s real GDP growth for 2019 upwards to 0.9%, from our September forecast of 0.2%, as a result of the stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of 2019, the latter driven by strong growth in the secondary sector. However, South Africa’s negative credit rating outlook represents downside risk to the kingdom’s inflation rate and economic growth going forward. Nonetheless, increased export receipts emanating from growth in the secondary sector will compensate for reduced Sacu revenue to a certain extent. Overall, the kingdom’s prospects remain depressed amid recurrent fiscal deficits and a high debt stock. (Source: eSwatini Quarterly Update, published December 2019)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-10.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
4.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
1.9 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
0.6 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
4,138.5 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
2.6 |
|
Population, million |
1.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
10.8 |