eSwatini
Landlocked eSwatini is ruled by Africa’s last absolute monarch and most of its people are dependent on subsistence agriculture. Large amounts of unwarranted state spending blemish the country’s reputation along with its foreign investment appeal. While disruptive political change at some point seems certain, it does not look imminent.
eSwatini’s name may have changed (formerly Swaziland) but its economic situation has not. If anything, it has deteriorated. We have revised this year’s real GDP growth forecast downwards to -0.1% from +0.6% previously. Inefficiencies in local economic policy and a small and underdeveloped private sector coupled with weak regional demand are some of the factors expected to weigh on the kingdom’s manufacturing-focused economy. On the monetary front; the central bank has turned decidedly dovish during its previous meeting, which we feel is warranted given the economic softness, and the probability of a rate increase in H2 2019 has risen. That said, measures for fiscal stimulus are limited, with total public debt forecast at 44.2% of GDP in 2019, while customs union revenue is expected to remain under pressure in 2019. (Source: eSwatini Annual Country Profile, published in June 2019)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-10.3 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
4.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
7.3 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
0.6 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,363.1 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
3.5 |
|
Population, million |
1.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
16.6 |