In-Depth Analysis
eSwatini
Landlocked eSwatini is ruled by Africa’s last absolute monarch and most of its people are dependent on subsistence agriculture. Unwarranted state spending blemishes the country’s reputation, along with its foreign investment appeal. Key macroeconomic indicators have underperformed in recent years, mainly due to the widening fiscal deficit. While disruptive political change seems certain, it does not look imminent.
The Covid-19 pandemic, the global recession, and the contraction in neigbouring South Africa’s economy will derail eSwatini. On July 29, the IMF approved eSwatini’s request for emergency financial assistance of about $110.4m under the Rapid Financing Instrument to meet the urgent balance of payments needs stemming from the pandemic. The Fund’s engagement is expected to catalyse additional assistance from other international financial institutions. The government has also launched a E30bn ($1.73bn) ‘Marshall Plan’ to get the economy back on its feet. Nevertheless, we expect real GDP to decline by 10.1% in 2020, representing a further deterioration from our May forecast of -8.1%. (Source: eSwatini Quarterly Update, published September 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-9.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
4.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
2.0 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,904.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
2.7 |
|
Population, million |
1.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
12.1 |