In-Depth Analysis
eSwatini
Landlocked eSwatini is ruled by Africa’s last absolute monarch and most of its people are dependent on subsistence agriculture. Large amounts of unwarranted state spending blemish the country’s reputation along with its foreign investment appeal. Key macroeconomic indicators have underperformed in recent years, mainly owing to the widening fiscal deficit. While disruptive political change at some point seems certain, it does not look imminent.
We now project real GDP growth to contract by a substantial 4% in 2020, compared to our previous expectation of a 1.1% expansion this year. The revised real GDP growth forecast considers the recent global developments surrounding the Covid-19 virus, as well as the deteriorating performance of the South African economy. Furthermore, the closure of various South African borders due to Covid-19, feeble regional growth, and weak global demand are likely to weigh on the kingdom’s growth outlook and the already crippled fiscal balance. While the government has very little fiscal space to support the economy, consumption, investment, and exports will all be under severe pressure, too. (Source: eSwatini Annual Country Profile, published April 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-9.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
3.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
1.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,994.5 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
2.6 |
|
Population, million |
1.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
13.5 |