In-Depth Analysis
Algeria Profile
The Algerian economy is characterised by its reliance on hydrocarbon exports and state-centred economic management. Authorities plan to diversify the economy and boost manufacturing and other sectors, but such restructuring can take decades to implement. Recent changes in the political landscape, however, give some reason to hope for policy change.
Real GDP growth is forecast to decline by -9.6% this year, compared to our previous forecast of 1.1% for this year prior to the global coronavirus pandemic. Negative real GDP growth reflects muted private consumption and domestic investment as the effects of a full lockdown in the province of Blida, and a partial lockdown in all other provinces of the country until April 29, force small to medium enterprises to close their doors and weigh on consumer pockets. Real exports of fuel are also expected to nosedive amid weakened global oil demand and a low global oil price environment, while exports of non-fuel goods will be weighed down by muted international trade. The government’s announcement of a 30% cut in public spending this year will also see government consumption decline significantly, while real imports are expected to tumble on government plans to cut the import bill by $10bn this year to protect reserves. However, this drop in real imports will only partially offset the effects of muted domestic demand, and a decline in real exports on economic growth. In 2021, real GDP growth is forecast to recover to 6.3% owing to base effects and is forecast to average 3.3% p.a. over the medium term. (Source: Algeria Quarterly Update, published April 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP)
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg)
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP)
Real GDP (annual % change)
GDP per Capita, US$
Import Cover (months)
Population, million
Total External Debt (as a % of GDP)
-8.3
2.4
-12.1
0.9
3,873.4
13.0
43
3.3