In-Depth Analysis
Algeria Profile
The Algerian economy is characterised by its reliance on hydrocarbon exports and state-centred economic management. Authorities plan to diversify the economy and boost manufacturing and other sectors, but such restructuring can take decades to implement.
The government has sent mixed messages with regard to its commitment to fiscal consolidation this year, and we expect any plans in this direction to only gain traction once April’s election has past. An end to fiscal stimulus and lower international oil prices will weigh on GDP growth, but we expect growth of 2.1% in the year ahead. Lower oil prices will also mean the progress in narrowing the current account deficit will also stall this year, and we forecast the deficit will reach around 9% of GDP. The deficit will continue the draw down on the country’s foreign reserves. On the inflation front, December saw the lowest y-o-y CPI print for over four years, but price pressures are expected to mount in the second half of the year and to bring the average for 2019 to 5.6%. On the political front, we expect that the election result in April will very closely resemble that in 2014: President Abdelaziz Bouteflika will win and there will be credible suspicions that the vote was rigged by the army and the bureaucracy. (Source: Algeria Quarterly Update, published February 2019.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP)
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg)
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP)
Real GDP (annual % change)
GDP per Capita, US$
Import Cover (months)
Population, million
Total External Debt (as a % of GDP)
-7.4
4.3
-7.7
2.3
4,175.7
19.5
41.9
2.4