In-Depth Analysis
Uganda
The government has focused on macroeconomic stability, structural transformation, and infrastructure development to support the nascent hydrocarbons sector. The Covid-19 pandemic and the measures imposed to curb the spread of the virus have battered the economy and should delay investments in the country’s oil projects. There is emerging evidence of near-term growth recovery following the easing of containment measures, and the medium-term outlook is positive.
Real GDP contracted by 6.0% y-o-y in Q2 2020 compared to a revised 1.0% y-o-y expansion the previous quarter due to the sudden financial and economic stops caused by Covid-19 containment measures and supply chain disruptions. Despite the easing of lockdown measures in Uganda as well as the monetary and fiscal stimuli unleashed by Ugandan authorities, the economy should contract this year – by a projected 1.7%. The political environment has become increasingly unstable as the 2021 presidential elections draw closer – the polls are supposed to take place before February 8. (Source: Uganda Annual Country Profile, published November 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-10.5 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
4.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.9 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-1.8 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
736.6 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.5 |
|
Population, million |
45.7 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
49.0 |