In-Depth Analysis
Uganda
The government has focused on macroeconomic stability, structural transformation, and infrastructure development to support the nascent hydrocarbons sector. The Covid-19 pandemic and the measures imposed to curb the spread of the virus have battered the economy and should delay investments in the country’s oil projects. There is emerging evidence of near-term growth recovery following the easing of containment measures, and the medium-term outlook is positive.
The Ugandan economy recorded a strong rebound in Q1 2021 as real GDP growth expanded by 6.2% y-o-y. This follows last year’s revised contraction of 0.9% as the services sector dragged economic activity into the red. Since then, the services sector recorded its first expansion in Q1 2021, with the 6.6% y-o-y growth driven by the information & communication and public administration subcategories. We revised this year’s growth forecast lower, to 4.9% from 7.0%, as the recent surge in Covid-19 infections and 42-day lockdown cut into the economic recovery. Low vaccination rates and weak household income make for a murkier near-term outlook. (Source: Uganda Annual Country Profile, published August 2021)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-9.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-0.9 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
845.8 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.49 |
|
Population, million |
45.7 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
44.6 |