In-Depth Analysis
Uganda
The Ugandan government has focused on market reforms and macroeconomic stability as the anchor for investment, economic growth, and structural transformation. While these policies paid off in terms of macroeconomic stability and impressive GDP growth, they have not delivered significantly on economic transformation.
Our forecast for Uganda’s 2020 macroeconomic outlook has changed considerably as a result of recent global developments. Demand for Uganda’s exports is expected to decline, coinciding with a fall in commodity prices. At the same time, a combination of factors should lead to lower imports: the postponement of major infrastructure & investment projects, a weaker currency, and a sharp dive in the oil price, with 2020’s average oil price expected to be about half that of 2019. On the invisibles side, tourism is expected to be one of the sectors most severely impacted by Covid-19 and the strict containment measures used to curtail the spread of the highly infectious virus. We expect government to curb non-essential expenditure during this time; nevertheless, spending on livelihood support and catering for the health sector’s response to fight against the fallout of the virus are unavoidable. With economic activity under strain, fiscal revenues will be sharply impacted. We now expect a contraction of 3.1% in 2020, from a previous forecast for a 5.8% expansion. (Source: Uganda Quarterly Update, published April 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.9 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.9 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.1 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
5.6 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
739.3 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.1 |
|
Population, million |
44.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
42.4 |