In-Depth Analysis
Uganda
The government has been focusing on macroeconomic stability, structural transformation, and infrastructure development to support the nascent hydrocarbons sector. The Covid-19 pandemic and the government’s restrictions imposed have hampered economic activity, with extreme poverty likely to rise as a result of continued employment and income losses. Once the effects of the pandemic fade, economic activity is expected to pick up.
The economy recorded a strong performance in H1 2021 but came under pressure during Q3 from the Delta variant. Leading indicators, however, point towards a solid performance in Q4 2021 as economic activity picked up. Meanwhile, at the start of 2022, the government fully reopened the economy by easing some of its most draconian restrictions. This is expected to benefit the Q1 2022 growth figures, but overall we expect the loss of base effects to lead to a slowdown in growth from an estimated figure of 6% in 2021 to around 3.8% in 2022. Additionally, the evolution of the pandemic remains uncertain, and the country has so far fallen behind on its vaccination rate. (Source: Uganda Quarterly Update, published February 2022)
Macroeconomic Data
(2021)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.0 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
6.0 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
903.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.82 |
|
Population, million |
47.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
46.4 |