In-Depth Analysis
Uganda
The government has focused on macroeconomic stability, structural transformation, and infrastructure development to support the nascent hydrocarbons sector. The Covid-19 pandemic and the measures imposed to curb the spread of the virus have battered the economy and should delay investments in the country’s oil projects. There is emerging evidence of near-term growth recovery following the easing of containment measures, and the medium-term outlook is positive.
In Q4 2020, the Ugandan economy recovered as real GDP expanded by 1.6% y-o-y, following a 0.1% y-o-y contraction in Q3 2020. However, the recovery was not enough to offset the downturn in Q2 2020, when the economy suffered a 6.1% contraction. The services sector continued to struggle to recover from the economic downturn. The industrial sector recovered in H2 2020, while the agricultural sector remained resilient against the pandemic. Our forecast is for the economy to boast a 7.0% expansion this year, supported by less stringent Covid-19 restrictions, continued resiliency in the agricultural sector, and a recovery in global economic activity. (Source: Uganda Quarterly Update, published May 2021)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.5 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-1.1 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
839.9 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.6 |
|
Population, million |
45.7 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
47.9 |