In-Depth Analysis
Uganda
The Ugandan government has focused on market reforms and macroeconomic stability as the anchor for investment, economic growth, and structural transformation. While these policies paid off in terms of macroeconomic stability and impressive GDP growth, they have not delivered significantly on economic transformation.
Real GDP growth is expected at 5.8% this year, notably higher than the revised 5.1% expansion recorded in 2017, driven by public infrastructure development and a recovery in agricultural output. We revised our medium-term GDP growth forecast downwards as impending oil production faces delays. However, the economic outlook remains positive with GDP growth expected to average just above 6% p.a. over the medium term. In addition, the rise in global oil prices and the sustained increase in capital-goods imports should put significant pressure on Uganda’s trade balance, placing pressure on the current account shortfall over the medium term. (Source: Uganda Quarterly Update, published October 2018.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-4.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-6.2 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
5.8 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
650 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.3 |
|
Population, million |
44.4 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
42.1 |