In-Depth Analysis
Tunisia
As a fairly developed country, Tunisia is exposed to the economic shocks relating to Covid-19, which has resulted in the worst recession since the country’s independence in 1956. Low inflation, countercyclical fiscal policies, robust international support and a stable exchange rate still provide support, while good institutions, deep ties with Europe, and a diversified economy are expected to underpin recovery.
The Tunisian government is having extensive talks with the IMF to secure a $4bn loan, which the government deems essential to set the economic recovery plan into motion. Labour unions disagree and tensions are mounting as the government considers the implementation of reforms required by the IMF. We forecast real GDP growth to reach 3.9% in 2021, but downside risks remain prevalent as the vaccination campaign is off to a slow start and in some sectors up to 50% of companies face closure. Structural economic risks are increasing and threatening Tunisia’s global competitiveness. (Source: Tunisia Annual Country Profile, published June 2021)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-9.8 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
5.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-6.8 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-8.6 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,318.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.7 |
|
Population, million |
11.8 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
98.8 |