In-Depth Analysis
Sudan
Sudan’s transitional civilian government continues to grapple with the reforms necessary to turn its economy around after 30 years of dictatorial rule. Immediate challenges include reining in the fiscal deficit, stabilising inflation, and normalising diplomatic relations, by removing Sudan’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism.
The magnitude of Sudan’s economic contraction in 2020 was less severe than what we had anticipated, likely due to an exceptional increase in gold output and the limited impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy that was already suffering after 30 years of dictatorship under Omar Al-Bashir. We forecast real GDP growth at a modest 1.3% this year, as the economy begins to reopen. Access to debt relief under the IMF’s Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative and the adoption of a floating currency is positive for economic growth, but downside risk stems from violent internal conflict and low government legitimacy, which is largely dependent on sending Mr Bashir to the International Criminal Court (ICC). (Source: Sudan Country Economic Forecast, published September 2021)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
163.3 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.8 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-1.6 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,717.3 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
8.9 |
|
Population, million |
43.8 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
75.7 |