In-Depth Analysis
Sudan
Economic and political risks are high as former President Omar Al-Bashir was ousted in a military-led coup, after 30 years in power. This revolution signifies a structural break in the country’s economic and political landscape, and the country’s transition from authoritarian to civilian rule is remarkable. Nevertheless, conditions remain dire as the economy remains constrained due to years of corruption, conflict, and neglect.
Weakened by years of mismanagement and last year’s revolution, the economy is very vulnerable to shocks relating to Covid-19. The coronavirus is disrupting international supply chains, weakening global demand, and deterring investment to high-risk countries, like Sudan. High inflation, liquidity shortages, fuel restrictions, and large external and fiscal imbalances continue unabated and deter economic reform and development efforts. While the success of the recent Sudanese Partnership Conference should boost the government’s capacity for countercyclical fiscal policy, increase the supply of forex reserves, and bolster private sector financing, it is not expected to improve economic conditions in the short run. Overall, real GDP is forecast to decline by 12.7% in 2020; the worst contraction since independence in 1956. (Source: Sudan Quarterly Update, published July 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
51.0 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-18.2 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-2.5 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
638.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
0 |
|
Population, million |
42.8 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
206 |