In-Depth Analysis
South Africa
A decade of ‘State Capture’, economic policy uncertainty, unreliable electricity, and an economy decimated by Covid-19 containment measures all weigh on the Rainbow Nation’s outlook. South Africa continues to boast the continent’s most sophisticated economy, with a world-class financial sector and some globally respected institutions, but other African peers are swiftly gaining ground.
Our outlook for the South African economy weakened over the past quarter as a result of the second wave of Covid-19 infections and the subsequent renewed adjusted level 3 restrictions. Furthermore, data releases revealed that the economic recovery had flattened out even before the second wave set in. We therefore expect a contraction during Q1, while also lowering our growth forecast for the full year. The renewed restrictions will also have a marked effect on revenues, and we project more job losses. Against the backdrop of a deteriorating fiscus, these developments will further compound National Treasury’s task ahead of the budget speech in February. (Source: South Africa Quarterly Update, published January 2021)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-6.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.3 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
2.0 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-7.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
5,064.8 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
6.8 |
|
Population, million |
59.4 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
52.6 |