In-Depth Analysis
South Africa
The Rainbow Nation has lost its position as Africa’s top economy and is no longer seen as a default gateway into the continent. Political struggles, policy uncertainty, and low confidence levels are straining economic growth, while beleaguered parastatal Eskom is unable to adequately power a largely stagnant economy.
Following a notable recovery in Q2 (flattered by the low base of calculation created by intermittent load-shedding, low global demand and labour strikes in Q1), the economy lost momentum again in Q3, contracting by 0.6% q-o-q seasonally adjusted, compared to +3.2% q-o-q in Q2. The economy continues to be hampered by elevated fuel prices, a high tax burden, generally low confidence levels, and dismal local and global demand. We forecast real GDP growth for this year at a below-consensus 0.3%, which already incorporates the dismal H2, while 2020’s forecast is just moderately higher at 0.9%. Going into 2020, South Africa’s political environment is dominated by the same issues that characterised 2019: government inaction, swelling unemployment, and the ongoing marginalisation of millions of people on the fringes of the system still looking for their better life. The new dawn heralded by the succession of President Cyril Ramaphosa to the presidency has long since lost its glow, and hopes for fundamental change in the right direction have been replaced by a sense that we are merely surviving. (Source: South Africa Quarterly Update, published December 2019)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-4.3 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
4.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.6 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
0.8 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
6,385.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.7 |
|
Population, million |
57.9 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
49.2 |