In-Depth Analysis
South Africa
A decade of ‘State Capture’, economic policy uncertainty, unreliable electricity, and an economy decimated by Covid-19 containment measures all weigh on the Rainbow Nation’s outlook. South Africa continues to boast the continent’s most sophisticated economy, with a world-class financial sector and some globally respected institutions, but other African peers are swiftly gaining ground.
Omicron added uncertainty at the end of 2021, and the implementation of snap travel bans against South Africa was especially disruptive to the ailing tourism industry. Nevertheless, the impact of the variant on economic activity has been fairly limited thus far. We estimate the economy expanded by 4.7% in 2021 and forecast real GDP growth will moderate to 1.8% in 2022. Elsewhere, in the political sphere, things are heating up. A leadership tussle within the ANC means 2022 will be characterised by fierce contestation and instability within the party and government it leads. (Source: South Africa Quarterly Update, published January 2022)
Macroeconomic Data
(2021)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.1 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
4.5 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
4.2 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
4.7 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
6,953.8 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.91 |
|
Population, million |
60.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
42.8 |