In-Depth Analysis
South Africa
The Rainbow Nation has lost its position as Africa’s top economy and is no longer seen as a default gateway into the continent. Political struggles, exacerbated by lower export receipts resulting from a softer iron ore price, restrain economic growth.
South Africa exits its two-quarter-long recession in Q3, with a broad-based recovery, admittedly off a low base. The economy is on track to record a 0.7% annual growth rate in 2018, though a very disappointing outcome compared to earlier expectations. While we remain generally optimistic about President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent initiatives (including an economic stimulus plan, a jobs summit and an investment summit), many local headwinds are still present, while the global backdrop remains challenging for emerging markets. We forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% and 2.2% for 2019 and 2020 respectively. (Source: South Africa Quarterly Update, published December 2018)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.0 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
4.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
0.7 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
6,561 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.6 |
|
Population, million |
57.5 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
52.4 |