In-Depth Analysis
Rwanda
Good governance has been key in Rwanda’s recent success, with accountable political institutions and inclusive economic institutions creating an environment conducive to the development of a vibrant private sector. The country boasts a strong GDP growth outlook and is among the fastest-growing economies in Africa.
The first national accounts data for the year shows clear signs of economic strain (despite only catching the tail end of the economic lockdown, imposed on 21 March 2020) and we expect Q2 will be more dismal still. That said, we believe the economy should avoid a contraction, but will not escape 2020 unscathed. The country’s reliance on primary sector exports renders it susceptible to fluctuations in commodity prices. Our real GDP growth forecast for this year stands at 1.3%. Depending on the duration and the severity of the Covid-19 pandemic, we expect to see a sharp economic rebound in 2021, with real GDP forecast to expand by 8.4%. The public health and economic effects of Covid-19 and complicating relations with neighbouring countries present the main risks over the short- to medium term. Nonetheless, regime stability remains assured over this period. (Source: Rwanda Quarterly Update, published July 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.5 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.4 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
9.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
801.7 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.9 |
|
Population, million |
12.6 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
58.6 |