In-Depth Analysis
Rwanda
Good governance has been key in Rwanda’s recent success, with accountable political institutions and inclusive economic institutions creating an environment conducive to the development of a vibrant private sector. The country boasts a strong GDP growth outlook and is among the fastest-growing economies in Africa.
Our initial expectation was that strong growth momentum would persist throughout 2020, on the back of robust demand and ongoing government spending. However, the coronavirus pandemic has thrown a spanner in the works. Rwanda reacted swiftly and was the first country in Africa to implement a national lockdown. We believe that the landlocked nation’s manufacturing, trade, and transportation subsectors will be particularly hard hit in 2020, owing to abrupt and widespread disruptions to supply chains, which will filter through to other salient subsectors such as tourism. Our pre-Covid-19 growth outlook pointed to an ebullient 7.8% expansion in 2020, but we now expect real GDP to grow by a meagre 1.3% this year, and conditions could get worse still. (Source: Rwanda Annual Country Profile, published April 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.5 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.4 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.9 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
9.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
801.7 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.7 |
|
Population, million |
12.6 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
58.6 |