Nigeria

Low oil prices continue to place the Nigerian economy under pressure and a weak policy response has only served to make matters worse. The economy is gradually gaining some traction, but the rebound remains fragile and downside risks are significant.

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Real GDP growth surprised slightly to the upside in Q3, supported by a slight rebound in the non-oil economy and oil output growth remaining especially robust. The latest GDP print paints a slightly more optimistic picture, as do more recent survey figures. However, slower oil output growth, sabotage attacks and policy distortions represent key downside risks. Gross reserves have also remained on a downward trajectory throughout H2, and there is a significant risk of additional FX restrictions being imposed should reserves come under more pressure than currently envisaged. (Source: Nigeria Quarterly Update, published December 2019.)

Macroeconomic Data

(2018)

Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP)

-4.5

Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg)

12.1

Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP)

1.4

Real GDP (annual % change)

1.9

GDP per Capita, US$

1,897.5

Import Cover (months)

7.2

Population, million

196.0
Total External Debt (as a % of GDP)

12.4
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