In-Depth Analysis
Nigeria
The Nigerian economy faces severe headwinds on account of the sharp drop in crude oil prices and the impact thereof on the country’s fiscal and external balances. Related currency issues limit investment, while instability (from jihadist terrorism and insurgencies in the south) have a further chilling effect.
GDP growth edged higher in Q3, ascribed to non-oil activity gaining more traction. While the latter represents an encouraging development, markedly lower oil prices have dampened the country’s short-term growth prospects. Lower oil prices mean Abuja will have to reduce envisaged fiscal expenditure. A decline in oil-related forex receipts will also add more pressure on the exchange rate, raising the probability that monetary policy will remain tight for longer. Meanwhile, declining reserves could hamper the central bank’s ability to defend the naira, raising the risk of more stringent FX controls being imposed. (Source: Nigeria Quarterly Update, published December 2018.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-4.8 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
12.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
4.0 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
1.9 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,905 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
9.0 |
|
Population, million |
196.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
12.6 |