In-Depth Analysis
Nigeria
Nigeria again finds itself in the midst of oil price and production shocks, with the situation being exacerbated by Covid-19 and the measures imposed to curb the spread of the virus. This will hold major adverse economic consequences, with a fragile recovery to follow.
The economy entered a recession with real GDP declining again in Q3. Lower oil output continues to weigh on industrial sector performance as Nigeria reflects stronger-than-anticipated compliance with Opec+ production quotas. Low oil prices have only piled on more pressure, leading to tighter FX liquidity conditions. Inflation, meanwhile, has continued to pick up pace. Unpopular policies have also resulted in widespread protests, and the risk of further unrest is elevated given that Abuja may be forced to take more drastic policy decisions. (Source: Nigeria Annual Country Profile, published December 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-6.9 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
13.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.3 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-2.2 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,937.1 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.9 |
|
Population, million |
206.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
15.6 |