In-Depth Analysis
Morocco
A fairly diversified Moroccan economy will help mitigate damages from the Covid-19 pandemic relative to commodity dependant countries. The country remains vulnerable in two main areas: firstly, its external position is highly reliant on a slowing eurozone economy; secondly, rising temperatures and the delayed onset of rains threaten the agricultural sector.
Morocco appears to be emerging from the blow dealt to its last year by the pandemic and drought, but the situation remains fragile. Although real GDP grew by 6.3% y-o-y in H1 2021, a large portion of the recovery was concentrated in Q1 2021, as agricultural output surged thanks to a bumper cereal harvest. In Q2, the economy contracted by 4.0% q-o-q, ending three consecutive quarters of q-o-q growth. We are not too optimistic about a recovery going into Q3, given that Morocco is in the midst of its deadliest wave of Covid-19 infections yet. Overall, real GDP is forecast to expand by 4.3% this year, after contracting by 6.3% in 2020. (Source: Morocco Annual Country Profile, published August 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
0.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-6.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,108.2 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
8.99 |
|
Population, million |
36.9 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
57.2 |