Morocco

Preliminary data shows that real GDP growth slowed to 1.9% y-o-y in Q1 2020, compared with 2.8% y-o-y in Q1 2019. Although the slowdown in economic growth had started before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic − owing partly to a struggling agricultural sector amid an ongoing drought − it has certainly been exacerbated by it. The non-agricultural sector has slowed, reflecting weaker growth in the extractions sector and processing industries, while unfavourable weather conditions continue to weigh on the agricultural sector. Going forward, we expect the ongoing lockdown, which was implemented on March 20 and is now set to end on June 10, to continue to weigh on domestic demand, while the global downturn will hit Morocco’s key export sectors hard. Overall, we forecast real GDP to decline by 6.0% this year, and to rise by 7.4% in 2021 (largely due to base effects). Morocco’s diversified economy should, however, support a quick bounce back from the pandemic-fuelled slump. Morocco is a very competently run country as far as participants in the formal economy are concerned, with coherent trade and industrial policies, and a fairly robust safety net even in times of crisis, like the one precipitated by the Covid-19 pandemic. But too many people are left out of this economy, and experience government rule as exploitative. We still see inequality, and unequal access to economic opportunity, as the main long-term risk to stability in Morocco. (Source: Morocco Quarterly Update, published May 2020.)

Macroeconomic Data

(2019)