In-Depth Analysis
Morocco
The Moroccan economy is fairly well diversified. However, it remains vulnerable in two main areas: firstly, its external position is highly reliant on the euro zone; and secondly, private consumption is highly dependent on the agricultural sector.
Morocco’s macroeconomic imbalances have weakened over the past year, reflecting a slowdown in fiscal consolidation and weaker than expected non-farming growth. Real GDP growth was revised slightly lower to 2.8% this year (from 3.2% previously) due to lower than expected industrial and services sector growth. Additionally, we revised the fiscal deficit slightly wider during 2019 due to pressure on authorities to raise wages, social expenditure and investment spending. Progress on reforming the pension system and improving tax revenue collection is anticipated to take the back seat as Moroccan officials address long-standing social issues. Politically, protests have cooled since mid-2017, partly thanks to some development plans that the king announced, but more thanks to more traditionally heavy-handed tactics. Overall, we maintain our political risk rating unchanged at low tending moderate with the trend neutral. (Source: Morocco Annual Country Profile, published December 2018.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
1.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.9 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
2.8 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,261 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.4 |
|
Population, million |
36.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
46.6 |