In-Depth Analysis
Morocco
A fairly diversified Moroccan economy will help mitigate damages from the Covid-19 pandemic relative to commodity dependant countries. The country remains vulnerable in two main areas: firstly, its external position is highly reliant on a slowing eurozone economy; secondly, rising temperatures and the delayed onset of rains threaten the agricultural sector.
The economy continued its gradual recovery into Q4 with real GDP rising by 4.2% q-o-q, after increasing by 10.9% q-o-q in the third quarter. On a y-o-y basis, however, real GDP still contracted by 5.5% in Q4, compared with a decline of 7.2% y-o-y in Q3. On December 23, the government reintroduced various containment measures. These restrictions were initially set to last for three weeks; however, they have since been extended three times and are now expected to last until March 2. The partial closure of the economy since end-December will hamper any further recovery into Q1 2021. We now forecast real GDP to bounce back by 5.2% this year, after contracting by 7.0% in 2020. (Source: Morocco Quarterly Update, published February 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.4 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
0.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.8 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-7.0 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,062.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
8.7 |
|
Population, million |
36.9 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
57.2 |