In-Depth Analysis
Morocco
A fairly diversified Moroccan economy will help mitigate damages from the Covid-19 pandemic relative to commodity dependant countries. The country remains vulnerable in two main areas: firstly, its external position is highly reliant on a slowing eurozone economy; secondly, rising temperatures and the delayed onset of rains threaten the agricultural sector.
Real GDP growth fell by 13.8% y-o-y in Q2 2020, after easing to 0.1% y-o-y in Q1 2020 (from 2.3% y-o-y in Q4 2019). While the contraction can be explained by the destructive effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on most Moroccan sectors so far this year, an ongoing drought has also continued to weigh on the country’s agricultural sector, which accounts for around 15% of GDP. Although we believe that the worst of the economic slump is behind us, the return of certain restrictive measures in parts of the country in recent weeks amid a spike in Covid-19 cases (following the lifting of lockdown conditions in June) will continue to weigh on economic activity. Although we believe that the government will continue taking a more targeted approach to addressing a potential second wave of infections, domestic demand conditions will certainly remain muted. Overall, real GDP is forecast to contract by 6.8% this year, compared with our previous forecast for a 6.0% contraction. On the political front, the most important dynamic in Morocco is the tension between the power structure and poorer citizens who are excluded from economic opportunity. (Source: Morocco Annual Country Profile, published August 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-4.3 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
0.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-4.1 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
2.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,282.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.5 |
|
Population, million |
36.5 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
45.6 |