In-Depth Analysis
Malawi
Malawi is one of Africa’s most impoverished countries and faces significant macro- and socio-economic challenges. It is susceptible to adverse weather conditions, as its agriculture sector still plays a large role in the country’s growth and development. Corruption perceptions harm the economy further by keeping donor nations away.
We maintained our economic growth outlook this forecast round, keeping the growth rate at 3.0% for 2019 and 3.4% for 2020. Over the short term, risks such as a weaker global trade outlook, the tobacco sector coming under pressure, and the new fall armyworm outbreak could lead to a downward revision in the growth trajectory. Long-run economic growth prospects are uncertain as the country remains heavily dependent on the weather-vulnerable agricultural sector and is also still experiencing power disruptions. The Constitutional Court on February 3 annulled last May’s presidential elections and ordered a new poll within 150 days. The timeline is already in some jeopardy, though, as incumbent President Peter Mutharika has decided to appeal the ruling in the Supreme Court, along with the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC). The appeal is seen as a mere delaying tactic and has limited chance of success. (Source: Malawi Quarterly Update, published February 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-6.4 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
9.4 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-19.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.0 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
417.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
2.4 |
|
Population, million |
18.6 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
34.2 |