In-Depth Analysis
Malawi
Malawi is one of Africa’s most impoverished countries and faces significant macro- and socio-economic challenges. The country is still undiversified, with its agricultural sector playing a large role in the country’s growth and development. Corruption perceptions are still a cause for concern for the economy, but donor support is slowly improving.
We forecast the economy to rebound from the pandemic in 2022 with an expansion of 3.8%. A lacklustre vaccination programme, which kicked off in March 2021, delayed the economic recovery last year. If the vaccination rate does not pick up this year, it will create some downside risk to our 2022 real GDP growth forecast along with Cyclone Ana that made landfall early in 2022. Our forecast rebound is also predicated on an above-average 2022 tobacco export performance, but the erratic performance of past tobacco marketing seasons is a source of concern. Pressure is mounting on President Lazarus Chakwera and the ruling Tonse Alliance as multiple corruption scandals unfold, the cost of living rises, and the coalition fails to deliver on ambitious election promises. (Source: Malawi Quarterly Update, published February 2022.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2021)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-11.4 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
9.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-18.9 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
2.5 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
449.2 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
1.47 |
|
Population, million |
19.7 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
43.5 |