In-Depth Analysis
Libya
The Libyan economy is dominated by its 48,363 million barrels of proven oil reserves; the largest of any African nation. Currently in protracted civil war, oil exports have plummeted as negotiations surrounding a ceasefire continue. With few alternative sources of fiscal revenues or export earnings, finding a resolution remains essential.
We forecast Libya’s economy to grow by 17.6% this year, provided political tensions don’t escalate. Foreign investors are lining up to benefit from Libya’s rich hydrocarbon reserves after the country enjoyed a period of calm. The industrial sector contributes more than 70% to Libya’s GDP, and provides huge scope for both upstream and downstream investments. Conflict risk is high, however, and with it the risk of militias targeting oil industry for leverage, interrupting production or exportation. In this report, we consider what the effects of renewed political turmoil will be on Libya’s growth outlook. (Source: Libya Country Economic Forecast, published February 2022.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2021)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
10.9 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
5.4 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
0.5 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
171.5 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
5,895.0 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
43.28 |
|
Population, million |
7.0 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
15.6 |