In-Depth Analysis
Ethiopia
The East African giant is the second-most populous nation on the continent after Nigeria and, despite its commendable economic growth performance, remains one of the poorest nations on earth. Under the ambitious reform programme first revealed in 2018, Ethiopia seeks to escape the poverty trap via development towards becoming a regional energy powerhouse and manufacturing hub.
A rapid deterioration in the security environment in Tigray and Amhara regions threatens to overturn nascent growth recovery. The surge in idiosyncratic risk came after the collision of two exogenous bearish shocks - the Covid-19 pandemic and a concurrent climate shock – brought high growth momentum to a halt, disrupting external trade, travel & tourism, and fixed investment. Reliance on grant relief places the fiscal position at risk of forced consolidation, while progress on the liberalisation agenda front disappointed. (Source: Ethiopia Quarterly Update, published November 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-2.5 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
17.4 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
8.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
827.3 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
1.9 |
|
Population, million |
112.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
33.3 |