Latest Analysis
Talking Point: Botswana – Bank rate unchanged but will be replaced as benchmark
The Bank of Botswana (BoB) decided at its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday, February 24, to maintain the benchmark bank rate at 3.75%, despite inflation surging to over 10% y-o-y in...
Weekly Africa Political Risk Report: Overview of the past week’s political developments
Algeria – The hirak three years on (Feb 24). Angola – From our Annual Country Profile (Feb 24). Côte d’Ivoire – From our Quarterly Update (Feb 21). Ethiopia – PM Abiy hints at negotiations, dialogue c...
Fixed Income Daily: Bond market and currency metrics for African capital markets
Egypt - We think that the MPC will take note of the rising cost-push risks emanating from external factors, but will opt to pause the tightening cycle at next month’s meeting as inflation currently re...
Daily Africa Insight: An overview of today’s key events and developments
Algeria – The hirak three years on. Morocco – Inflation eases in January, but tensions are mounting. Nigeria – APC’s National Convention postponed. South Africa – PPI inflation takes a breather in Jan...
Weekly Africa Insight: Overview of the past week’s political and macroeconomic developments
Algeria – The hirak three years on (Feb 24). Angola – Inflation accelerates at the start of 2022 (Feb 21). Côte d’Ivoire – Sticky inflationary pressures spill over into 2022 (Feb 23). Egypt – ‘Letters...
Talking Point: South Africa – PPI inflation takes a breather in January
Price inflation at the factory gate moderated to 10.1% y-o-y in January, from 10.8% in December, according to Statistics South Africa’s (StatsSA) latest producer price index (PPI) report. The most rec...
Talking Point: Algeria – The hirak three years on
When the hirak al-chaabi or people’s movement started in Algeria three years ago, there were precursor tremors before the movement began in earnest. The context was the determination of then-President...
Talking Point: Morocco – Inflation eases in January, but tensions are mounting
Headline inflation eased to 3.1% y-o-y in January, after accelerating to 3.2% y-o-y in December. A slight downturn in the pace of inflation reflects a marginal deceleration in the pace of both food an...
Angola Annual Country Profile: GDP recovery to gain pace in 2022
We forecast economic growth will accelerate from 0.3% in 2021 to 2.8% in 2022, which will be supported by the ramp-up in production from oil project start-ups and increased investment in the energy se...
Talking Point: Nigeria – APC’s National Convention postponed
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has postponed their National Convention, which was initially scheduled for Sunday, February 27. During the week, the different state governors of the APC fai...
Fixed Income Daily: Bond market and currency metrics for African capital markets
Zambia - The scars of the fiscal quagmire will be carried into the medium term, although the participation of the IMF – as well as the restoration of portfolio flows – will lay the foundation towards...
Daily Africa Insight: An overview of today’s key events and developments
Côte d’Ivoire – Sticky inflationary pressures spill over into 2022. Ethiopia – PM Abiy hints at negotiations, dialogue committee formed. South Africa – The 2022 budget will support the economy, but no...
Talking Point: South Africa – The 2022 budget will support the economy, but not boost it
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered the 2022 National Budget to Parliament on Wednesday, February 23, with President Cyril Ramaphosa having charted a course for economic growth through his Sta...
Talking Point: Ethiopia – PM Abiy hints at negotiations, dialogue committee formed
On Tuesday, February 22, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed hinted that his government is open to negotiations with rebel groups, which could bring an end to the conflict that has left thousands of people dead...
Featured African Economic Insights
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.#Angola crude #oil production dipped for the second-consecutive month in March. Nevertheless, oil output did improve slightly in Q1 2022 as a whole compared with Q1 2021.
President Ouattara of #Cotedivore has named a vice-president: Tiemoko Meyliet Koné, an economist who has spent most of his career at the West African central bank, the BCEAO. The nomination is positive from the point of view of governance.
.#SouthAfrica headline inflation rate came in at 5.9% y-o-y in March, 0.2 ppt higher than the previous month. The March inflation print was slightly lower than the consensus forecast of 6.0% y-o-y.
In its WEO for April the #IMF makes downward revisions to the global growth outlook in response to the war in Ukraine. #Africa is an exception: the Fund’s view of growth in sub-Saharan Africa is unchanged since October. But the outlook for the price environment is bleak.
Inflation in #Sudan rose to 263.2% y-o-y in March. The October coup d'état has sent the already fragile economy into free fall. Living standards are rapidly deteriorating as prices continue to soar, and 18 million people are at risk of facing food insecurity in coming months.
.#Angola #inflation rate dips slightly in March, marking the second-straight disinflation reading this year. The stronger kwanza should give consumers some reprieve this year.
The number of #tourists visiting #Mauritius rose to 66,066 in March as Covid-19 restrictions were relaxed and pandemic-related fears became more of a faint memory.
The #inflation outlook in #Nigeria deteriorated over the past month as the headline print rose to 15.9% y-o-y due to food and fuel prices pressures. Inflation should continue trending upwards throughout Q2 and Q3, averaging above 16.0% this year.
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