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Research Briefing: Africa – Who will ride the oil price tailwinds?
Crude oil prices breached the $100pb threshold on February 24 as news broke that Russia invaded Ukraine. Geopolitical tensions, tight oil markets and the rebound in global activity underpin the crude...
Talking Point: Tanzania – Positive terms of trade shock retreats in 2021
The current account deficit more than doubled to $2.2bn in 2021, following a positive terms of trade shock in 2020. The deterioration mainly reflects a weakening in the merchandise trade shortfall.
Talking Point: South Africa – The manufacturing sector’s good start to 2022 continues
The seasonally adjusted Absa purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose from 57.1 points in January to 58.6 points in February. All five major subcomponents showed improvement in February, suggesting that...
Talking Point: West Africa – Fracture and confrontation in the Sahel
Burkina Faso’s interim authorities have come up with a three-year roadmap to return to constitutional rule. The plan was adopted on Saturday, February 26, by the ‘national assizes’ – a conclave of 350...
Talking Point: Uganda – Core and fuel inflation pushes up headline rate
The latest consumer price index (CPI) publication by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (Ubos) indicates that CPI inflation accelerated in February after decelerating the previous month. The headline fig...
Fixed Income Daily: Bond market and currency metrics for African capital markets
Kenya - Inflation is now forecast to average 7.1% this year from an earlier forecast of 7.7%, as government opts to absorb cost adjustments ahead of the elections.
Kenya Quarterly Update: Economic growth takes flight despite strong headwinds
We estimate that the economy grew by 7.6% in 2021 and foresee an economic expansion of 4.2% in 2022. Our outlook is underpinned by resilient growth in the services and industrial sectors. Key downside...
Zambia Annual Country Profile: Rising external risks countered by improving policy environment
The market-friendly election outcome in August 2021 unlocked positive revisions across the risk spectrum, rooted in the expectation that the Hichilema administration will repair the fragile relationsh...
Daily Africa Insight: An overview of today’s key events and developments
Malawi – Inflation continues its upward trend. Morocco – Sentences for activists after February 20 anniversary. Namibia – Budget passes the debt ball to the youth. Nigeria – General election date move...
Talking Point: Sudan – Inflation eases in January, military junta isolated
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBoS), consumer price index (CPI) inflation slowed for the sixth consecutive month to 259.8% y-o-y in January, compared with 318.2% y-o-y in December. Al...
Talking Point: Tunisia – Inflation: bumpy road ahead for purchasing power
In the absence of official National Statistics Institute (INS) data releases owing to the protests at the institute, we consider recent international and domestic factors that should have a notable im...
Talking Point: South Africa – Exports weigh on trade surplus in January
Merchandise exports dropped by 16.1% m-o-m in January to reach just over R130bn. Imports remained largely unchanged on a m-o-m basis during the month, coming in at just under R127bn. This resulted in...
Talking Point: Morocco – Sentences for activists after February 20 anniversary
Sunday, February 20, was the anniversary of the day in 2011 when Morocco saw major protest marches in which people demanded an opening up of the political space. It was just over a month after Tunisia...
Talking Point: Zambia – Disinflation gains traction but heeds external headwinds
Inflation slowed for a seventh consecutive month in February, braking to 14.2% y-o-y from January’s reading of 15.1% y-o-y and well below the recent peak of 24.6% y-o-y. The ongoing disinflation was f...
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.#Angola crude #oil production dipped for the second-consecutive month in March. Nevertheless, oil output did improve slightly in Q1 2022 as a whole compared with Q1 2021.
President Ouattara of #Cotedivore has named a vice-president: Tiemoko Meyliet Koné, an economist who has spent most of his career at the West African central bank, the BCEAO. The nomination is positive from the point of view of governance.
.#SouthAfrica headline inflation rate came in at 5.9% y-o-y in March, 0.2 ppt higher than the previous month. The March inflation print was slightly lower than the consensus forecast of 6.0% y-o-y.
In its WEO for April the #IMF makes downward revisions to the global growth outlook in response to the war in Ukraine. #Africa is an exception: the Fund’s view of growth in sub-Saharan Africa is unchanged since October. But the outlook for the price environment is bleak.
Inflation in #Sudan rose to 263.2% y-o-y in March. The October coup d'état has sent the already fragile economy into free fall. Living standards are rapidly deteriorating as prices continue to soar, and 18 million people are at risk of facing food insecurity in coming months.
.#Angola #inflation rate dips slightly in March, marking the second-straight disinflation reading this year. The stronger kwanza should give consumers some reprieve this year.
The number of #tourists visiting #Mauritius rose to 66,066 in March as Covid-19 restrictions were relaxed and pandemic-related fears became more of a faint memory.
The #inflation outlook in #Nigeria deteriorated over the past month as the headline print rose to 15.9% y-o-y due to food and fuel prices pressures. Inflation should continue trending upwards throughout Q2 and Q3, averaging above 16.0% this year.
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